{
  "status": "Computed from frozen, genuine CPU forecasts; no new inference or tuning",
  "split": "validation",
  "runs": [
    "valve1/8",
    "valve1/9",
    "valve1/10",
    "valve1/11",
    "valve2/2"
  ],
  "target_channels": [
    "Accelerometer1RMS",
    "Accelerometer2RMS",
    "Current",
    "Pressure",
    "Temperature",
    "Thermocouple",
    "Voltage",
    "Volume Flow RateRMS"
  ],
  "forecast_origin_stride": 16,
  "forecast_horizon": 16,
  "context_length": 128,
  "normal_fit_rows": 2236,
  "scaling_rule": "Per channel fixed healthy-fit 1.4826*MAD; if <=1e-10 use healthy-fit population SD; if <=1e-10 use 1. No validation refit.",
  "scales": {
    "Accelerometer1RMS": {
      "center": 0.02687815,
      "scale": 0.00049585557,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.00049585557,
      "fit_std": 0.00048502297403175927
    },
    "Accelerometer2RMS": {
      "center": 0.039907,
      "scale": 0.0009519774599999994,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.0009519774599999994,
      "fit_std": 0.0009509185900790811
    },
    "Current": {
      "center": 1.0276800000000001,
      "scale": 0.3303032649,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.3303032649,
      "fit_std": 0.2749092627884561
    },
    "Pressure": {
      "center": 0.054711,
      "scale": 0.25298150861114,
      "source": "population SD fallback",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.0,
      "fit_std": 0.25298150861114
    },
    "Temperature": {
      "center": 72.63255,
      "scale": 3.9062803499999847,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 3.9062803499999847,
      "fit_std": 3.384202200992698
    },
    "Thermocouple": {
      "center": 25.59505,
      "scale": 0.2527091699999983,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.2527091699999983,
      "fit_std": 0.5727347847257778
    },
    "Voltage": {
      "center": 231.207,
      "scale": 8.443407000000011,
      "source": "1.4826\u00d7MAD",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 8.443407000000011,
      "fit_std": 10.518791923816785
    },
    "Volume Flow RateRMS": {
      "center": 32.0,
      "scale": 0.43895020123322775,
      "source": "population SD fallback",
      "fit_mad_scaled": 0.0,
      "fit_std": 0.43895020123322775
    }
  },
  "aggregation": "Within each run\u00d7channel cell: mean over eligible observed timestamps; then unweighted mean over all 5\u00d78=40 cells. The same hierarchy is used within each regime or horizon. Relative reduction = 1 \u2212 macro Chronos nMAE / macro persistence nMAE.",
  "nmae_definition": "mean |actual\u2212point forecast| / fixed healthy-fit channel scale; Chronos point=q50, persistence repeats the last causally preprocessed context vector through the same 16-step horizon.",
  "interval_definition": "Chronos [q10,q90] nominal80% interval; report empirical coverage together with mean width/fixed channel scale. Persistence has no interval in this experiment.",
  "pinball_definition": "Unweighted mean of normalized pinball loss at the three cached levels q=.1,.5,.9; not all13 model quantiles.",
  "regimes": {
    "all": {
      "rows": 40800,
      "timestamps": 5100,
      "run_channel_cells": 40,
      "chronos_nmae": 0.5967572450247332,
      "persistence_nmae": 0.79807927026803,
      "relative_nmae_reduction": 0.2522581812902923,
      "chronos_coverage80": 0.759934321054754,
      "chronos_width80_normalized": 1.8364736515342268,
      "chronos_three_quantile_pinball": 0.19468204931055672,
      "pooled_chronos_coverage80": 0.7599264705882353,
      "paired_cells_chronos_lower_mae": 39,
      "chronos_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 24351.160559192354,
      "persistence_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 32565.233809871977
    },
    "healthy": {
      "rows": 24824,
      "timestamps": 3103,
      "run_channel_cells": 40,
      "chronos_nmae": 0.572770207186877,
      "persistence_nmae": 0.7765874885354506,
      "relative_nmae_reduction": 0.2624524401403223,
      "chronos_coverage80": 0.7559994551207251,
      "chronos_width80_normalized": 1.779168850186283,
      "chronos_three_quantile_pinball": 0.18867547970718443,
      "pooled_chronos_coverage80": 0.7560022558814051,
      "paired_cells_chronos_lower_mae": 38,
      "chronos_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 14221.574196682812,
      "persistence_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 19279.48844229759
    },
    "abnormal": {
      "rows": 15976,
      "timestamps": 1997,
      "run_channel_cells": 40,
      "chronos_nmae": 0.6340331147257504,
      "persistence_nmae": 0.8314715830993862,
      "relative_nmae_reduction": 0.23745666404817567,
      "chronos_coverage80": 0.766051694509398,
      "chronos_width80_normalized": 1.925518730297533,
      "chronos_three_quantile_pinball": 0.20401435521893907,
      "pooled_chronos_coverage80": 0.7660240360540811,
      "paired_cells_chronos_lower_mae": 38,
      "chronos_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 10129.58636250954,
      "persistence_normalized_absolute_error_sum": 13285.745367574395
    }
  },
  "fixed_run": {
    "run": "valve1/8",
    "timestamps": 1022,
    "anomalous_timestamps": 400,
    "elapsed_seconds_inclusive": 1071,
    "unobserved_seconds_not_scored": 49,
    "decisions": {
      "ensemble_mean": {
        "threshold": 0.9686344133747595,
        "alarm_timestamps": 0,
        "true_positive_timestamps": 0,
        "false_positive_timestamps": 0,
        "false_negative_timestamps": 400,
        "f1": 0.0,
        "state_coverage": 0.0
      },
      "chronos_residual": {
        "threshold": 0.9942299156679982,
        "alarm_timestamps": 10,
        "true_positive_timestamps": 5,
        "false_positive_timestamps": 5,
        "false_negative_timestamps": 395,
        "f1": 0.024390243902439025,
        "state_coverage": 0.0125
      }
    }
  },
  "audit": {
    "duplicate_run_time_channel": false,
    "all_timestamps_have8targets": true,
    "actual_join_max_absolute_error": 0.0,
    "origin_datetime_plus_horizon_matches_target": true,
    "persistence_matches_float32_last_context_value_max_error": 0.0,
    "unique_validation_forecast_origins": 337,
    "causally_imputed_origin_endpoints": 13,
    "outer_q10_q90_crossings": 0,
    "median_below_q10": 21,
    "median_above_q90": 0,
    "median_outside_q10_q90_count": 21,
    "median_order_violation_max_normalized_breach": 0.07384892388459736,
    "median_order_violation_max_physical_breach": 0.03241600000000133,
    "quantile_sorting_applied": false,
    "test_rows_in_outputs": 0
  },
  "sources": {
    "forecast_trace": {
      "file": "forecast_trace.csv.gz",
      "sha256": "4f0ed6ee8b8903528063593ecef9486044819c6988f43975e10eaf3bf84ecf00"
    },
    "combined_scores": {
      "file": "combined_scores.csv.gz",
      "sha256": "d4bc10dd829bdd217e0e967bae57437e3a4567a43c06445a8aef1521f509c920"
    },
    "fixed_scales": {
      "file": "normal_fit_and_calibration.npz",
      "sha256": "c66de702d1d12414ffb86e56f99f9baf25c3569632529680407ef62b422cf5eb"
    },
    "thresholds": {
      "file": "combined_thresholds.json",
      "sha256": "54b9f1782609142ba3282904edd18991f1b5fadb03eee665590166c89f6eab7f"
    }
  },
  "limits": [
    "Five validation runs from one experimental rig; no uncertainty estimate of independent deployment performance.",
    "Forecast quality is measured separately from anomaly discrimination and does not establish why a residual detector fails.",
    "Classical detectors refresh every observed timestamp; forecast residuals use a fixed sixteen-step issuance schedule.",
    "Post-hoc descriptive forecast analysis does not modify frozen model, feature, calibration or threshold choices.",
    "The cached median falls outside q10/q90 in 21 of 40,800 validation values, all in the flow channel; raw quantiles are retained, not sorted."
  ]
}